Where people live will have a major impact on how new technology
applications affect their personal health and standard of living.
People in advanced nations will gain the greatest economic economic
benefits from all major progresses in technology in the next 14
years, while people living in lesser advanced countries will benefit
only if they can overcome barriers to technology implementation.
This is the conclusion of a recent report issued by the RAND Institute,
a prominent US nonprofit research institution whose clients include
the US Office of the Secretary of Defense and the US intelligence
community.
All countries will be helped or hindered by their “science
and technology capacity," says Richard Silberglitt, one of
the lead authors of the report. This includes human capacity (ie.
national levels of education and scientific literacy), physical
capacity (including transport and freight infrastructures, schools,
hospitals, research facilities and utilities), and systems of governance,
banking, law, education and health.
The study examined 29 countries, each selected because of their
differences in size, world region, and social, economic and political
conditions. Labelling each country's scientific abillity as being
either advanced, proficient, developing or lagging, RAND researcher's
forecast the following technological advances for the year 2020:
SCIENTIFICALLY ADVANCED COUNTRIES: United
States; Canada; Germany (representing Western Europe), South
Korea, Japan, Australia and Israel.
Because of the rapid pace of technological development, if scientifically
advanced countries are to stay ahead, they need to ensure that
their laws, public opinion, investment in research and development,
and education and literacy do not stand in the way of technology
implementation.
That said, people living in these countries will benefit the
most from advances in technology, and they will be able to exploit
technology regardless of its sophistication.
Examples of sophisticated applications include:
a) The possibility of growing tissues to implant and replace
human body parts;
b) Creating pervasive sensor networks in public areas to accomplish
real-time surveillance;
c) Providing access to information anytime and anywhere;
d) Creating wearable computers; and
e) Using ever-smaller computational devices to do things like
continuously monitor a person's health.
Writers of the report are careful to note that some
scientific advances are so controversial that they may not take hold
even if they are technically feasible. Radio-frequency identification
tagging, for example (which is used to track everything from products
to people) has already raised questions of privacy that could limit
its use.
SCIENTIFICALLY PROFICIENT COUNTRIES: China,
India, Russia and other scientifically proficient countries
such as Poland (representing Eastern Europe).
The two countries best positioned to close the gap with the
scientifically advanced group – China and India – are
perhaps the most talked-about nations in terms of growing economic
power. The ability to adapt new technologies in these nations
supports their emergence as military as well as economic powers.
Yet all countries in this category stand to make significant
advances, along with some simpler ones as well.
For example, these countries could provide their people
with:
a) Drug therapies that preferentially attack specific tumors
or pathogens without harming healthy tissues and cells;
b) Vastly improve their medical diagnostic and surgical procedures;
and
c) Apply advanced security techniques using quantum cryptography
in sectors such as finance and defense.
SCIENTIFICALLY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: Mexico,
Turkey, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, South Africa and Chile.
These countries are poised to take advantage of modestly
sophisticated technology applications. These include:
a) Devices to constantly track the movement of everything from
products to people;
b) Easy-to-use health diagnostic tests that give immediate results
for a large range of infections; and
c) Environmentally friendly manufacturing methods.
SCIENTIFICALLY LAGGING COUNTRIES: Fiji,
the Dominican Republic, Georgia, Nepal, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran,
Jordan, Kenya, Cameroon and Chad.
These countries are burdened by their political systems, a lack
of resources or infrastructure, and class disparities. However,
as the report suggests, when such countries have the will to
make changes and make a concerted effort to eliminate barriers
and support drivers to technology implementation, they can improve
the lives of their citizens.
Advances they can harness include:
a) Cheap solar energy for remote or portable applications;
b) Ways to purify water that won't require major infrastructure;
and
c) Rural wireless communications.
RAND's National Security Research Division
for the National Intelligence Council is the US intelligence
community's center for long-term strategic thinking. The council
provides the president of the United States and other senior
policymakers with analyses of national security and foreign policy
issues. For more information, go to http://www.rand.org/hot_topics/globalization/
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