Some technologies are just destined for greatness. Even though
it poses some serious security problems, and even though the
'standard' is now available in several different flavours,
one of those technologies is Wi-Fi.
What is Wi-Fi?
In the interests of keeping this a non-technical discussion,
Wi-Fi refers to the ability of computers to communicate with
each other, and therefore the Internet, without the annoyance
of sprawling, tangled wires. That doesn't sound like much,
until the first time you sit in a coffee shop, or in your
backyard dozens of feet away from either power or a telephone
plug. There is something very 'convenient' about being able
to connect to the entire world with nary a wire in sight.
You might not be interested in Wi-Fi today, but when you buy
your next PC chances are very good it will come equipped with
Wi-Fi capability. It's possible you have the ability already
but haven't used it. It's even possible you're unaware the
ability is there.
Why will Wi-Fi ultimately succeed?
Well, once again we have good old Moore's Law to thank. Every
18 months the amount of computing power available for a
fixed price, doubles. (Actually the original law was far
more sophisticated, technical and detailed... but this
paraphrased short version strikes at the heart of the issue.)
When Wi-Fi technology first became available it was expensive
and far beyond the wallets of most consumers. As Moore's
Law took effect, the price dropped to the point where Wi-Fi
is added to every computer to give the manufacturer a slight,
but temporary, sales advantage. The net result is that slowly
everyone acquires Wi-Fi capability.
By itself, the proliferation of a technology is always interesting,
but with Wi-Fi the story becomes more intriguing. Like Fax
machines, Wi-Fi increases in usability as more people acquire
the technology. The proliferation of Wi-Fi is guaranteed
by the synergy it can bring to both person and corporate
computing.
Prediction?
Wi-Fi will promote the growth of multi-player games. It will
also finally force computers to come out of the home office
and into the living room where it will foster a more interactive
type of TV viewing... imagine the Quiz show "Who wants
to be a Millionaire?" where the life line "ask
the audience" really means... "ASK THE AUDIENCE"...
the whole audience... all 5,000,000+ viewers.
Another prediction -- and this merely builds upon past experience:
Home exposure to Wi-Fi will generate increased interest in
the technology by the corporate world. If you can wander around
the house and never lose access to the Internet and the computer
files on your base machine, why shouldn't you have that capability
at work?
These are the simple and obvious changes which a prolific
Wi-Fi distribution will generate. The more interesting changes
are more difficult to predict.
Once Wi-Fi is reasonably well established, it will change
the way we think about the world. In particular it will change
the way we think about control processes. If my laptop can
connect wirelessly to the Internet... then anything electrical
can be connected to the Internet and controlled by anything
connected to the Internet.
Drop the price far enough on Wi-Fi technology, combine it
with a cheap minimalist process control box, and my laptop
can control every electrical component in my house... wouldn't
it be nice to never have to reset ANY clock during day-light
savings time switchovers? Wouldn't it be nice to program my
VCR via a simple to use program on my laptop... or set the
coffee machine? Or better yet... A Wi-Fi unit installed in
my car which will communicate with Ford to diagnose problems
and tell me when I need to change the oil, or get that tune
up.
It's not that we would push to connect everything, but the
invisible cost of innovation will inevitably connect everything.
All thanks to Moores Law.
© 2003, Peter de Jager. Peter is a keynote
speaker, futuist, consultant and writer. Visit him at www.technobility.com or
contact him directly at
pdejager@technobility.com
© Copyright 2003. Galt Western Personnel
Ltd. Unless otherwise specified, you may reprint this article,
quote from it, use it in research or projects, duplicate it or
distribute it. Credit of authorship and source MUST be given to
galtglobalreview.com. Ownership of Copyright remains with Galt
Western Personnel Ltd.
