It doesn’t matter where we look,
old copies of Time,
Popular Mechanics, daily newspapers or even our favorite science
fiction magazines. All their many visions of the future included
one particular element: the personal flying car. Where is it?
More importantly... Why isn’t it?
A
"poorly coupled" prediction
Yes, we have air travel, even more than most people believe
or can imagine. At any moment in time, there are more than
1,000,000 people in the air. That’s a small city in flight.
Yet, it isn’t the flying car vision of the past. That
vision was one of the personal flying car. An advance that
would replace the all too familiar automobile. It was of the
average citizen of the street, flying in ordered flowing streams
to work and the picking up the groceries. That hasn’t
happened. Sadly (?), it will never happen.
That’s a strong statement, audacious, even pretentious,
yet I believe it to be true. The ‘flying car’ vision
is an example of a “poorly coupled” prediction.
There’s no path from today that we can travel, to arrive
at this envisioned tomorrow. Between today and the tomorrow
of our dreams, lie insurmountable obstacles, which are an integral
part of who we are.
Most people would suggest the reason we don’t have flying
cars has something to do with technology. They’re only
half right. Technology only limits what is possible; human
nature limits what we attempt
Drive the main highways of a major city at the height of rush
hour. Note the irrational stop and go, the swerving, the rampant
inattention to a life and death activity, the growing trend
of road rage, the madness of hurtling steel leviathans, the
honking of horns, and the unexpected rushes of adrenaline.
Now imagine this maelstrom a thousand feet above your home...
every hour - of every day.
NIMAS... not in my air space
“But!” the objections are shouted from the back
row, “It doesn’t have to be that way! Technology
has solutions! Guidance and control systems can solve all
those problems. Anti-collision devices can make accidents
impossible.” Etc. etc.
Let’s assume the technologists are right. Let’s
pretend for the sake of argument that all of the above is
true. Even with all this as a given, will we ever see flying
cars replace the automobile? Not a chance - for several different
reasons.
The first? No community would allow a flow stream over their
backyard. NIMBY (not in my backyard) would quickly change
to NIMAS... not in my air space. Second? A flow stream would
have to be placed over a non-residential corridor... and
it would have to be significantly wider than existing highways.
Flying cars a thousand feet up need a lot more space for
emergency landings than do Ford pickup trucks. Simple real
estate economics makes mass consumer use of personal flying
cars impossible.
The suspension of disbelief
There’s another mundane, yet insurmountable reason. How
would we take that huge step from being land bound to being
airborne? Regardless of assurances that flying your own car
would be as safe as driving, how do we get to the point where
enough people believe this to be true, for us to allow a single,
never mind tens of thousands, of flying cars to swoop and swerve
like swallows downtown during normal business hours?
This is the “poor coupling” of the flying car
prediction. Between the reality of today and our vision of
tomorrow, there is a chasm we have to cross. One we can’t
traverse with little steps. Those steps are not technological
ones, but ones of belief, trust and even a minimal level of
acceptance.
In science fiction, we’re allowed one, even two, suspensions
of disbelief. In real life, the first one you come across when
analyzing this prediction... destroys its validity.
© 2003, Peter de Jager. Peter is a keynote speaker
and consultant. Visit him at www.technobility.com or contact
him directly at
pdejager@technobility.com
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