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Technology is on a fast track to transforming our world. Within the next 20 years, we could see the end of incurable diseases, the cessation of our need to deplete the earth's natural resources, and the restoration of our ozone layer and end to global warming.
If the exponential growth rate of Moore's Law continues, we will experience over 1000 'years' of technological progress by 2022. An incredible blend of biology and technology will completely revolutionize our way and view of life.
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For the past four decades, Moore's Law has been the visible force behind the race for technological advancement. However, another law by prolific inventor and author Ray Kurzweil (now dubbed Kurzweil's Law), states that progress will begin to accelerate ever faster as we shift to a new way of manufacturing computer chips. Kurzweil believes that this will bring "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history".
Kurzweil's research shows that technological growth has already been through five stages, beginning with the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census. Relay-based machines were the next shift (Turing's machine that cracked the Nazi enigma code), then vacuum-tube computers (CBS used one to predict Eisenhower's election), then transistor-based machines (used in the first space launches), and finally to our present-day integrated circuits that run our personal and business computers.
Kurzweil believes that "The next paradigm [new approach], the sixth, will be three-dimensional molecular computing. In the past year, there have been major strides, for example, in creating three-dimensional carbon nanotube-based electronic circuits."
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New methods of fabricating chips will bring us through to the limits of silicon functionality. Research is being made into new methods for printing and manufacturing silicon chips while avoiding the skyrocketing prices of fabrication.
Dr. Steven Chou and Chris Keimel of Princeton University's Nanostructures Lab have developed a new process with which to imprint silicon. Laser Assisted Direct Imprint (LADI) can imprint components 100 times smaller than what is currently possible, using low cost equipment and imprinting individual chips extremely quickly - in fact almost instantaneously.
A consortium founded by Intel, Motorola, and IBM developed a new process called Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV). In June of 2002, Intel announced the intended application of EUV by 2005. EUV will allow the use of a laser beam imprinter with a wavelength of less than 1/10th the size of wavelengths in previous advanced research.
Chris Keimel explained to us the difference between the two new technologies: "The main difference between the DUV and EUV systems and the LADI process is the cost of equipment and speed of the process. [EUV] will continue to increase in cost and the price of new fabs is already into the billions of dollars - LADI on the other hand does not use expensive optics and systems to form features as small as 10nm (already smaller then the best EUV experimental systems)."
Based on current suppositions, the next shift--- estimated to occur in 2017---will be to molecular-scale organic transistors and quantum computing.
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With increased computational power, astounding possibilities and ideas become within reach.
In health, technology may bring the end to now-incurable diseases. Medical applications at the smallest scale could interact with our body to diagnose problems, disintegrate diseased cells, and report to our doctors, complete with visuals. Invasive surgery could become outdated as surgeons could operate with minute instruments without the need to make outer incisions.
Technology may save the environment. Solar cells so small and tough they could be laid on any surface could bring us an inexpensive non-depleting energy source. We may see technologies emerge that can start restore and rebuild our ozone layer.
Technology in education may bring robotic tutors and new enhanced learning methods for our children, universities with true virtual reality-based libraries and presentations, instant research on-the-fly, and simulated interaction with current and historical leaders.
Maybe all the advances will still fall under Moore's Law. As he stated himself, "…if it's exponential, I'll take credit for it."
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Copyright © 2002, Galt Western Personnel Ltd.
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