Business
News
Business Roundups
Australia
Canada
Europe
United States
Careers
Classified
Feature Article
Information Technology
New Technology
Education News
World Facts
Book Reviews
Archives/Research
Tell
your friends about this page
Receive articles in your mailbox
Privacy Policy
|
|
|
|
|
Within the next 15 years, the steady progress in producing faster, cheaper, and more powerful computer chips will be unavoidably impeded by the laws of physics. It all started 37 years ago.
"Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home computers," wrote Gordon Moore, a young researcher at Shockley Semiconducter, "…automatic controls for automobiles, and personal portable communications equipment." The year was 1965, three years before he would co-found the largest silicon chip manufacturer now in existence---Intel.
Gordon Moore inadvertently set a precedent with his paper, which Electronics magazine asked him to write for their 35th anniversary edition.
His submission entitled, "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits" presented the idea---a new idea at the time---that the development of smaller transistors at lower unit production costs would translate into exponential progress in silicon chip complexity at minimum cost. In other words, performance would double each year.
|
|
In 1965, chips could hold 60 transistors. Moore predicted that by 1975 as many as 65,000 transistors could be crammed onto a single chip. In perspective, Intel's Pentium 4 chips now hold over 42 million transistors. The ability to fit more transistors on a silicon chip simply means that information can be processed faster.
The press dubbed the observation "Moore's Law", and it has become a widely accepted and universally acknowledged precept that has come to account for not only chip complexity but also faster performance, translating into computer performance that doubles every 18 to 24 months.
In an interview with Dori Jones Yang in 2000, Moore admitted he used to cringe every time someone used the term, and stated about his original ten year prediction that, "Really, that's as far ahead as I've ever been able to see."
Moore's predicted rate of progress has been embraced by the industry, becoming somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If a company progresses faster, fabrication and development costs become prohibitive. If it progresses slower, components may be less expensive but the company falls behind the competition.
<< top >>
|
In the late 90's, the digital world started becoming increasingly anxious about the supposedly inevitable demise of Moore's Law. Chip manufacturers had two major problems: physical barriers blocking the continued diminution of transistor size, and financial barriers in fabrication costs.
While computing power was doubling every two years, fabrication costs were doubling every three years. This situation would inevitably lead to the slowing or stop of chip manufacturer's progress.
If Moore's Law holds true, manufacturers will need to individually place atoms to manufacture silicon chips throughout the 2010's. At the 0.10-micron stage (each transistor would be composed of less than 100 atoms), small silicon chips containing millions or billions of transistors would no longer be able to control the flow of electrons.
With each generation of increased performance, the size of computer-based products becomes smaller. If manufacturers simply made larger chips to fit more transistors on them, the products would also have to become larger to accommodate them, or our smallest electronic products and applications would not be able to be improved upon.
<< top >>
|
|
What do we want when we buy a new computer or other electronic gadget? We want it to be fast, reasonably priced, and as small as possible. This has been the trend maintained by the progress of companies such as Intel and AMD, making the new products we see on the shelves of electronics stores available and affordable.
Moore's Law is why our computers become obsolete so quickly. By the time Intel or another chip manufacturer can work out the kinks of doubling performance, again, the cycle of Moore's Law has taken us through another two years or so, and current products are half as powerful as the next generation of technology.
Technological progression itself demands faster performance. Philip Wong of IBM said, "…There are many things we could do with increased computing that people want to do today. For example, on-the-fly language translation and instant communication in a small form factor…"
Business advancement necessitates better, faster computational power. As our computers become faster and more powerful, software companies step in and develop more powerful and robust applications and software. In our personal lives, increased computational speed means faster Internet access, better entertainment, smaller and more powerful cell phones, and better performing and safer cars.
So what happens when Moore's Law butts up against the laws of physics?
NEXT WEEK: Moore's Law can prevail. Life after silicon, The sixth paradigm, and the conclusion.
|
Do you have a comment or feedback on this article? Email us and let us know what you think. |
© Copyright 2001. Galt Western Personnel Ltd.
Unless otherwise specified, you may reprint this article, quote from it,
use it in research or projects, duplicate it or distribute it. Credit
of authorship and source MUST be given to galtglobalreview.com. Ownership
of Copyright remains with Galt Western Personnel Ltd.
|
