Two simple questions rest at the foundation
of most Strategic Plans: "Where do we want our organization
to be in five years? What must we do, and when must we do
it, to get there?"
Ask these questions and the answers they provide will give
you sound objectives. The question entices us to vision a
picture of what we want to achieve in the future.
Here's the snag: we cannot create a useful vision of the
future unless we also ask a bigger and more complex question. "Where
will the world be in five years?"
Crafting a Strategic Plan is akin to trying to get to Mars
or running to catch a baseball. We don't move to where it
is now, only where it will be when we finally get there.
Obvious? Of course it is. Yet most Strategic Plans make
no attempt to determine where the world will be. They plan
as if the world stands still in time, when in reality it
is rocketing off in some unknown direction under the influence
of Moore's Law, politics, demographic trends, diminishing
resources, new opportunities, catastrophes, aging populations,
shifting alliances and a thousand other forces.
Typically, we target the future by basing it upon our understanding
of the past. Transactions have been growing at a rate of
10% per year, for example, so we plan for similar future
growth.
New developments, "wild cards" if you wish, can
erase all credibility from this type of reasoning. Digital
music and the ease with which it is shared over the Internet
unexpectantly eroded the relevance of all historical sales
figures for the music industry.
Of course, our real problem is that answering the question, "Where
will the World be in five years?" is challenging. As
Yogi Berra, the great Philosopher King and sometime baseball
player said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially
about the future."
Tough? Yes, definitely. Impossible? No. Even if we choose
to ignore them, there are developments we know will affect
us in the future. Here are a few:
The Collapse of Constraints: (The result of Moore's Law)
Computer and telecommunication technology is going to get
more powerful, faster, cheaper, more reliable, more accessible,
smaller, cooler (in more ways than one), better and more
convenient.
The Implications?
What technologies would we like to implement in our organizations
today, but can't because of some limitation? Within the
next five years, the natural advance of technology will
collapse those constraints. Then what? Here are some reminders
from our recent past, imminent future, and their impact
and possible implications:
Digital Music => Copyright => Music
Industry Sales?
Telecommunications => Offshore Outsourcing => Local White
Collar Work?
Voice over IP => Personal Communications => Phone Companies?
RFID => Inventory Costs => Privacy & Security?
Mobile Phones => Personal Communications => Land lines?
The Passage of Time: (Demographics)
Soon the elderly will outnumber the young whippersnappers.
The Implications?
No secret here, as we get older we change in predictable
ways. How do you differ from your parents? Imagine their
buying habits and lifestyle rolled out as the norm. Imagine
the bulk of marketing targeted at something other than
teenage tastes, how will that affect your business?
New Markets & New Competitors: (The Third World
is no longer Third)
One word: China.
The Implications?
America makes up about 5% of the world population and consumes
30% of the world resources. Imagine a new nation, with
the buying power, consumption, resources and production
capability of 5-10 USAs.
Now... Can you imagine a Future where this juggernaut will
NOT affect your business?
These are just three of the many developments we might choose
to factor into our strategic plans. Which of these are threats
or opportunities? Or are we convinced that tomorrow is just
today, plus a day?
No matter how we factor them in, the sooner we do it the
better. If we're going to live in the Future, we might as
well look forward to it.
© 2005 The Global Future Forum. Peter de Jager is a
Professional Futurist of the GFF. Contact him at Pdejager@technobilitycom,
and read similar work at www.thegff.com.
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